Tuesday, February 13, 2024

Young, in the city, and online: most Georgians use more than one social media platform

Note: This article first appeared on the Caucasus Data Blog, a joint effort of CRRC-Georgia and OC Media. It was written by Zachary Fabos, a Researcher at CRRC-Georgia. The views presented in the article are the author’s alone and do not necessarily represent the views of CRRC-Georgia, Caucasian House, or any related entity.

A CRRC Georgia survey found most Georgian respondents use more than one social media platform, with younger people and people living in cities using a greater variety of platforms. 

According to Georgia’s National Statistics Office, 96% of Georgia’s internet users use social media. While social media’s popularity in Georgia is clear, which platforms are most used and who uses the most platforms? 

According to the 2021 Caucasus Barometer survey, 68% of Georgians use the internet daily. The most frequently mentioned destinations for those online are Facebook, with 69% of survey participants using the site, followed by YouTube, with 61% of respondents using the platform. Use of other sites such as Instagram (26%), TikTok (19%), Odnoklassniki (6%), Twitter (5%), and Vkontakte (5%) trails in comparison. 

An analysis found the number of different platforms respondents reported using, with the data suggesting that the average number is two.

When this data is broken down, it shows that among demographic factors, the strongest predictor of using a diversity of platforms is age. On average, people aged 18-34 use three platforms while those 55+ use only one, controlling for other factors. Those aged 35-54 use two platforms, controlling for other factors. 

Aside from age, the number of platforms someone uses is also associated with settlement type. People living in rural settlements use one platform, while those in Tbilisi and other urban settlements use two on average, controlling for other factors.

Employment status, ethnicity, education level, and sex are not correlated with the number of platforms a person uses.

The above pattern holds across the different platforms asked about on the survey — young people (18-34) are more likely than people in older age groups to use each platform asked about on the survey, controlling for other factors.

The above data shows that young people both use a more diverse set of social media platforms than older people, while also using each and every social media platform asked about more often than people 35 and older.

This article was written by Zachary Fabos, a Researcher at CRRC Georgia. The views presented in the article are the author’s alone and do not necessarily represent the views of CRRC Georgia or any related entity.

Note: The analysis in this article makes use of logistic regression analysis. The analysis included gender (male, female), age group (18-34, 35-54, and 55+), settlement type (capital, urban, rural), education (secondary/ secondary technical/ lower, and tertiary), ethnicity (ethnic Georgian, ethnic minority), employment (not employed, employed), and a wealth index (0-10), as predictor variables. 

The data used in this article is available here.

Tuesday, February 06, 2024

Does Georgia’s public want gender-balanced politics?

Note: This article first appeared on the Caucasus Data Blog, a joint effort of CRRC-Georgia and OC Media. It was written by Elene Ergeshidze, a Researcher at CRRC-Georgia. The views presented in the article are the author’s alone and do not necessarily represent the views of CRRC-Georgia, Caucasian House, or any related entity.

CRRC Georgia surveyed the Georgian public on attitudes towards gender equality in politics and obstacles faced by women in politics in Georgia. 

Gender equality in politics is an important issue globally, and Georgian policy on the issue has been developing in recent years. Georgia introduced mandatory gender quotas for proportional party lists in 2020, extending this provision until 2032. The legislation stipulates that at least one out of four candidates submitted to the Central Election Commission, and provides financial support to parties that nominate more women. 

Despite these policy changes, much remains to be done to ensure gender equality in practice. In the 2020 parliamentary elections, only three political parties and one electoral bloc benefited from the financial incentive mechanism for nominating more female candidates than the mandatory gender quotas required. A study on mandatory gender quotas in Georgia found that in 2022, women still made up only 19% of Georgia’s parliament. 

Harassment directed at politicians is also a significant barrier. A CRRC study found that female politicians in Georgia more frequently faced online violence (abusive and harassing comments) related to their personal life than male candidates and politicians, in the two months before the 2020 parliamentary elections. 

Despite those challenges, data from the NDI and CRRC October 2023 survey suggest that the public’s attitudes are becoming more approving of gender equality in politics.

Two thirds of those surveyed believed that female and male politicians represented their interests equally. This marked a 10 percentage point increase compared to March 2023, and an 18 point increase compared with October 2014, when CRRC first asked the survey question. 

The survey also asked respondents what they believed were the largest obstacles preventing women in Georgia from engaging in politics. Respondents were allowed to name up to three issues. 

The most frequently named obstacles were family responsibilities (19%), a lack of self-confidence (13%), and women having no interest in politics (11%). One in ten (10%) reported the perception in the public that there was no place for women in politics was an obstacle, and 9% believed women were hindered by a lack of family support. 

However, these attitudes have also changed in the past decade. There was a nine percentage point drop in the share of those who named family responsibilities as an obstacle compared to 2014. The share reporting that women had a lack of interest in politics also decreased by seven percentage points. The percentage of respondents who named a lack of relevant experience and education halved, moving from 16% to 7% and 18% to 9%, respectively. 

However, there was also a seven percentage point increase in the share of respondents who stated that women face no barriers to engagement in politics since 2014. 

The above data shows substantial progress toward greater acceptance of gender equality in politics. 

Despite the belief that some issues, such as family responsibilities and a lack of self-confidence, remain barriers preventing women from entering politics, the decreasing percentage of respondents citing these as obstacles suggests a changing landscape in the country.  

Tuesday, January 30, 2024

Trust and political independence in Georgia’s interior ministry

Note: This article first appeared on the Caucasus Data Blog, a joint effort of CRRC-Georgia and OC Media. It was written by Tinatin Bandzeladze, a senior Researcher at CRRC-Georgia and Mariam Kobaladze, a senior Researcher at CRRC-Georgia. The views presented in the article are the author’s alone and do not necessarily represent the views of CRRC-Georgia, Caucasian House, or any related entity.

A CRRC survey found that trust in Georgia’s Interior Ministry and the police is closely tied to perception of the ministry’s political independence, or lack thereof. 

In summer 2022, CRRC Georgia and the Social Justice Center partnered on a nationwide public opinion survey on state and personal security. It found that while the Interior Ministry was one of the most trusted institutions in the country, many respondents were concerned that the ministry lacks transparency and political impartiality.

Georgia’s Interior Ministry is largely made up of and closely associated with the country’s police, with police officers often seen as representatives of the ministry. Previous research has demonstrated that police need public trust to effectively carry out their mandate to fight crime and maintain public safety

According to the 2022 survey, a majority of the Georgian public trust the Interior Ministry. About two thirds (65%) of the public has full or partial trust in the ministry. This is lower than that of the Defence Ministry (68%), but outperforms the Prime Minister (58%), the State Security Service (59%), the President (51%), and the Parliament (46%). 

Trust in the Interior Ministry varies with a number of social and demographic characteristics.

Residents of Tbilisi are less likely to fully trust the Interior Ministry than residents of other cities and people in rural areas. 

Trust in the ministry is also associated with party preferences. People who support the ruling Georgian Dream party are more inclined to fully trust the ministry than supporters of opposition parties and those who support no party. Almost half of ruling party supporters fully trust the Interior Ministry. 

Ethnic minorities fully trust the Interior Ministry at nearly twice the rate of ethnic Georgians. 

Other demographic characteristics do not predict trust in the ministry.

Research by others suggests that trust in the police is connected more to perceptions of police fairness than with perceptions of police effectiveness in dealing with crime. 

In relation to that, the study also asked about whether the public perceived the Interior Ministry as patriotic, professional, impartial, and transparent. The surveyed respondents viewed the ministry as patriotic (23%) and professional (23%) more frequently than they perceived it to be impartial (15%) and transparent (14%). 

The above opinions are associated with trust in the Interior Ministry. Those that think these characteristics fully describe the ministry, also nearly unanimously trust it. In contrast, majorities of those that do not think each characteristic describes the ministry also mistrust it. 

Respondents were also asked if they believed the Interior Ministry was independent from politics. Only 9% of those surveyed felt that the Interior Ministry was fully independent from political influence, while 23% believed it was more independent than dependent. On the other hand, 47% reported believing that the ministry had no political independence or it was more politically ‘dependent’ than independent. The remaining 21% did not know or refused to answer the question. 

The data indicate that opinions regarding political independence strongly predicted trust in the ministry. While there was a 62% chance an individual would fully or partially distrust the Interior Ministry if they believed it was not independent at all, the likelihood dropped to 2% among those who believed it was fully independent. 

While a majority of Georgians reported trusting the Interior Ministry, and thereby the police, in 2022, relatively few reported they were transparent and impartial, with only a third of respondents viewing them as politically independent. A belief that the ministry lacks independence as well as a lack of belief that it is transparent, accountable, professional, patriotic, impartial, and respects human rights are strong predictors of whether people trust the institution.

Note: This blog makes use of ordinal logistic regression analysis. The dependent variable was trust in the MIA, with don’t know and refuse to answer responses removed. The independent variables included:  sex, age, employment status, level of education, a wealth index, settlement type, political sympathy and ethnic identity. 

Tuesday, January 23, 2024

Obstacles to accessing Georgia’s courts

Note: This article first appeared on the Caucasus Data Blog, a joint effort of CRRC-Georgia and OC Media. It was written by Salome Dolidze, a Researcher at CRRC-Georgia. The views presented in the article are the author’s alone and do not necessarily represent the views of CRRC-Georgia, Caucasian House, or any related entity.

A CRRC Georgia survey investigated who considers and who pursues litigation in Georgia, and the obstacles people face in doing so. 

Georgia’s court system faces significant issues, with reports suggesting that long delays, access to the legal system, and overloaded caseloads are among the barriers that prevent citizens from using the courts. 

A 2021 Social Justice Center report noted that geography, the physical accessibility of buildings, a lack of legal awareness and empowerment, and other physical, financial, cultural, and social barriers presented challenges for large segments of Georgian society. A recent CRRC Georgia survey looks specifically at who goes to court and who considers it, but ultimately doesn’t, and the challenges both groups face in their pursuit of justice. 

Overall, 4% of those surveyed reported they went to the courts over the six years prior to the survey, and a further 4% reported that they considered starting litigation but decided not to. Among those who went to court, 71% were there for civil litigation, 17% for criminal cases, and 12% for administrative legal disputes.

The data suggest there are a number of differences between social and demographic groups in terms of who goes to court.

Those who had tertiary education were more likely to have started litigation than those without.  People living in urban areas outside of Tbilisi were more likely to have considered starting litigation, but ultimately refrained from doing so, than those living in the capital. 

Other social and demographic variables such as sex, ethnicity, employment status and wealth were not associated with whether or not someone considered starting litigation or actually did so. 

The data also provided insight into the main challenges people faced in Georgia’s court system, as well as the reasons why people ultimately decided not to use the courts.

When people who had actually engaged in litigation were asked about difficulties they had encountered during that process, a majority of respondents (52%) stated that the litigation process takes too long. Another significant concern was the cost associated with litigation, which was cited by 34% of respondents that went to court. In addition, 20% highlighted the difficulty of finding an affordable lawyer, with another 12% stating that finding a qualified lawyer was a challenge. Legal expertise can, of course, be critical to navigate the complexities of the legal system, and ensuring a fair and just outcome. 

The lack of legal expertise amongst ordinary citizens (7%) was highlighted infrequently. Approximately one fifth of respondents (21%) mentioned that they encountered no difficulties in the litigation process.

When respondents who had considered starting litigation, but not done so were asked why they had chosen not to go to court, a number of key factors stood out. 

A lack of trust in the judicial system was the most commonly given reason, with 56% of respondents identifying this as a significant deterrent. Another prominent concern for those who refrained from legal action was the cost of litigation, mentioned by 33% of respondents. The length of court trials was also cited by 27% of those who ultimately chose not to pursue litigation. Other significant concerns included lacking knowledge or awareness of legal matters (17%).

One in twenty Georgians have considered going to court in the last six years, and a further one in twenty went to court. Among those who went to court, prolonged court procedures, financial constraints, and a lack of trust in the judicial system were cited as significant barriers to accessing justice in Georgia.

The data used in this article is available hereThe regression analysis used in this article included the following variables:  Age (18-34, 35-54, 55+); Sex (male or female); Settlement type (Tbilisi, other urban, rural); Education level (tertiary or not); Ethnicity (Ethnic Georgian or ethnic minority); Employment status (employed or not working); Wealth index (A simple additive index of ownership of a number of durable goods within a household).

Wednesday, January 10, 2024

Can political parties in Georgia survive abandonment by their leaders?

Note: This article first appeared on the Caucasus Data Blog, a joint effort of CRRC-Georgia and OC Media. It was written by Givi Silagadze, a Researcher at CRRC-Georgia. The study was financially supported by the National Endowment for Democracy (NED). The views presented in the article are the author’s alone and do not necessarily represent the views of NED, CRRC-Georgia, Caucasian House, or any related entity.

A year before Georgia’s general elections, a CRRC survey found that less than half of surveyed Georgian partisans would remain loyal to their favoured party if its leader were to establish a new party, with supporters of the ruling party more likely to stick with their party than supporters of the opposition. 

In recent years, political experts and analysts have argued that parties in Georgia function more on the basis of their political leaders’ popularity, rather than as genuine political organisations. 

This would suggest that if political leaders left their party and established a new one, a substantial portion of their voters would go with them. 

To test this hypothesis, CRRC Georgia conducted a public opinion poll in October 2023, a year before Georgia’s next general elections. 

The data suggests that only four out of ten partisans would stay with their party if its leader leftHowever, supporters of the ruling Georgian Dream party are more likely to stay with their party, while opposition supporters more likely to be unsure or follow their party’s leader.

Respondents were asked to identify the political party with which they identified most closely. 

Those respondents who named a political party (35% of respondents to the survey) were then asked to imagine a scenario in which a leader of their favoured party decided to cut ties with the party and establish a new party. Respondents were then asked to report how they would vote—would they still vote for their favoured party, or for the one that had been newly established?

LeaderParty
Bidzina IvanishviliGeorgian Dream
Mikheil SaakashviliUnited National Movement
Giorgi GakhariaFor Georgia
Zurab Girchi JaparidzeGirchi More Freedom
Mamuka KhazaradzeLelo
Irma InashviliAlliance of Patriots
Shalva NatelashviliLabour Party
Zurab MakharadzeConservative Movement - Alt Info 
Giorgi VashadzeStrategy Aghmashenebeli
Giga BokeriaEuropean Georgia
Aleko ElisashviliCitizens
Elene KhoshtariaDroa
Iago KhvichiaGirchi
Anna DolidzeFor the People
Nino BurjanadzeDemocratic Movement
Zviad DzidziguriConservative Party
Fridon InjiaEuropean Socialists
Levan VasadzeERI

Four out of ten partisans (39%) said they would still vote for their favoured party. Approximately every fifth partisan voter (18%) said they would change their partisan preference and would vote for the new party. A plurality of partisans (43%) said they did not know which party they would vote for or refused to answer.    

Further statistical analysis shows that some groups are more likely to stick with their favoured party even when its leader launches a new political venture. People with vocational education are less likely to stick with their favoured party than people who have a lower or higher level of formal education.

Party affiliation is also associated with whether or not voters are willing to stick with their current preferred party. Supporters of the ruling party are 27 percentage points more likely to say they would still vote for Georgian Dream if the party’s founder, Bidzina Ivanishvili, established a new party than opposition supporters when asked the same question regarding their parties’ leaders.

Regarding whether voters are willing to follow their party’s leaders, similar trends emerge. 

Opposition supporters were 16 percentage points more likely to report they would vote for a party newly founded by their party’s leaders than Georgian Dream supporters.

People with lower levels of formal education were more likely to follow their party’s leader than people with higher levels of formal education. 

Men were also more likely to follow a leader to a new party than women.

However, opposition supporters were also 17 percentage points more likely to be unsure of how they would vote if the leader of their favoured party established a new party compared with ruling party supporters.

People with higher education and vocational education are more likely to be unsure than people with lower levels of formal education. 

The above data supports the idea that Georgian political parties are at least partially driven by their leaders, with only four out of ten partisans reporting they would stick with their favoured party if its leader launched a new political venture. Moreover, one in eight ruling party supporters and one in three opposition supporters reported they would follow their leader to a new party. 

However, multiple other possible explanations for the data likely explain the differences between ruling party and opposition supporters. 

First, the line between the ruling party and the state is often blurred, meaning that Georgian Dream’s supporters might continue to support the party on the basis of it remaining in power. Second, at the time of the survey, Bidzina Ivanishvili had formally distanced himself from politics. As a result, some Georgian Dream supporters might have supported other leaders within the party and the party’s policies, rather than its founder. Finally, many of the opposition parties which the public reported supporting were founded by former members of the UNM who left or are otherwise dominated by a single personality. In turn, many of their voters are likely already voting for the party based on its leader.

Despite the above, ties appear to be stronger to the party itself for Georgian Dream supporters than for opposition supporters.  

Note: The above data analysis is based on logistic regression models, which included the following variables: age group (18-34, 35-54, 55+), sex (male or female), education (completed secondary/lower, vocational, higher), settlement type (capital, urban, rural), employment status (not working, working in the private sector, working in the public sector), religious attendance (regularly, on special occasions, rarely or never), and party identification (Georgian Dream, Opposition). 

Tuesday, December 12, 2023

Who expects that Georgia will receive candidate status?

Note: This article first appeared on the Caucasus Data Bloga joint effort of CRRC-Georgia and OC Media. This article was written by Dustin Gilbreath, a non-resident senior Fellow at CRRC-Georgia, and Kristina Vacharadze, Programmes Director at CRRC- Georgia.  The views presented in the article are the author’s alone and do not necessarily represent the views of CRRC Georgia, Caucasian House, or any related entity.

A CRRC survey found that Georgians who want EU candidate status and those who feel positively about the EU are more optimistic about Georgia’s chances of joining the EU, along with older people and those not working in the private sector. 

On 8 November, the European Commission recommended that Georgia receive candidate status in the bloc. 

Polls conducted by CRRC Georgia prior to the announcement suggested that only 33% of Georgians believed that the country would obtain candidate status. Previous analysis has shown that Georgian Dream supporters were more optimistic about the status being granted, likely at least partially reflecting confidence in the party which they support. But, aside from partisanship, what else predicted whether someone believed Georgia would gain candidate status prior to the European Commission’s announcement? 

With regards to social and demographic variables, a few patterns stand out. 

Controlling for other factors, older people (55+) were ten points more likely to report that Georgia would gain membership than those 54 and under. People working in the private sector were, on the other hand, less likely to report they believed Georgia would gain candidate status than people working in the public sector or not working. 

Whether someone wanted the EU to grant Georgia candidate status was a strong predictor of whether they believed the EU would grant it prior to the announcement. A person who did not support Georgia joining the EU had a 17% chance of believing candidate status would be granted. By comparison, someone who fully supported Georgia’s attempt to join the EU had a 43% chance of believing that Georgia would receive candidate status.

The data suggested that people’s perceptions of the European Union similarly aligned with their predictions. Those who had a very positive perception of the EU had a 50% chance of reporting that they believed Georgia would gain candidate status. In comparison, someone with a very negative view had a 20% chance of believing the country would receive candidate status. 

The above data suggest that Georgians who had positive attitudes towards the EU also tended to be optimistic in their expectations regarding the institution’s decision. 

Note: The data in this article come from a series of regression models. The first contains the following demographic variables: sex (male or female), age group (18-34, 35-54, 55+), education level (high school or less, vocational education, or higher education), and employment status (not working, works in the private sector, works in the public sector). The following models added 1) whether or not someone supported Georgia’s candidate status, and 2) whether or not the respondent reported a positive or negative perception of the EU.

This article was written by Dustin Gilbreath, a non-resident senior fellow at CRRC Georgia. The article reflects the views of the author alone, and does not necessarily reflect the views of CRRC Georgia or the National Endowment for Democracy.

Tuesday, December 05, 2023

Georgians more aware of EU membership status than ever before

Note: This article first appeared on the Caucasus Data Bloga joint effort of CRRC-Georgia and OC Media. This article was written by Anano Kipiani, a researcher at CRRC-Georgia, and Kristina Vacharadze, Programmes Director at CRRC- Georgia.  The views presented in the article are the author’s alone and do not necessarily represent the views of CRRC Georgia, Caucasian House, or any related entity.

In the months prior to the EU’s announcement of whether Georgia will receive candidate status, more Georgians were aware than ever before that the country was not yet a member of the EU.

While surveys have consistently shown that a large majority of Georgians would vote for the country’s membership in the European Union, they have also previously shown that large shares of Georgians — up to one in six — believed that the country was already a member of the EU. 

Newly released data from the 2023 CRRC Georgia and Europe Foundation survey on ‘Knowledge of and attitudes towards the EU in Georgia’, collected in the spring and summer of 2023, shows that more Georgians are aware that the country is not a member state than ever before. 

Survey respondents were asked whether Georgia is currently a member of the EU. The vast majority — 92% — reported that Georgia is not currently a member. This is nine percentage points higher than recorded in any other year of the survey, since 2009. It is a full 22 points higher than during the first wave of the survey in 2009.

In 2023, only 3% reported that Georgia was already a member, compared with 16% in 2017 and 2019. The closest year to the current levels was in 2015, when only 5% reported that Georgia was already part of the EU.  

There has also been a corresponding decline in the share reporting uncertainty about whether Georgia is or is not a member of the EU. 

In contrast to 2015, when 12% of the public was uncertain about Georgia’s membership status, only 5% were uncertain about whether Georgia is a member of the EU in 2023.

While more people are now aware of Georgia’s membership status, interest in getting more information about the EU itself has remained largely consistent between 2011 and 2023, with small fluctuations between years. For example, since 2021, interest in getting more information increased by five percentage points.

However, interest varies between different demographic groups. 

Young people (18-34) are 17 percentage points more likely to be interested in information about the EU than 35-54 year olds, and 22 percentage points more than those aged 55+. 

People from Tbilisi are 12 percentage points more likely to be interested in receiving more information about the EU than people living in rural regions, and 14 points more likely than people in other urban areas.  

Ethnic Georgians are 13 percentage points more likely to be interested in getting more information on the EU than ethnic minorities. 

People with tertiary education are 11 percentage points more likely to be interested in receiving more information on the EU than people with secondary or lower education.

While in 2023, people were more aware of Georgia’s EU membership status than ever before, the public’s interest in being informed about the EU has remained stable. 

This article was written by Anano Kipiani, a researcher at CRRC Georgia, and Kristina Vacharadze, Programmes Director at CRRC Georgia. The views presented in this article are the authors’ alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views of CRRC Georgia, Europe Foundation, or any related entity.